The ship market recovers, wait another 10 years?

At the 23rd China, Japan, Korea, Europe, and the United States (JECKU) Shipbuilding Experts Preliminary Meeting held recently, the Japan Shipbuilding Industry Association (SA) pointed out that the current global shipbuilding capacity is about 60 million revised gross tonnage, and the market The demand is only 30 million revised gross tons, and the contradiction of overcapacity is still serious. According to SAJ forecasts, the global shipbuilding market demand will again grow on a large scale from 2025 to 2035, and it is expected to reach a balance of supply and demand by 2030 to 2035. In this regard, some experts said that after the outbreak of the international financial crisis, global orders for new ships have dropped significantly, and major shipbuilding countries in the world have been reducing production capacity in recent years. If this factor is taken into account, and with the growth of global shipping trade volume, the point in time when the global shipbuilding market reaches the balance of supply and demand may be advanced.

This ECKU shipbuilding expert pre-supervisory meeting conducted in-depth exchanges and discussions on the current economic situation, overall development trend, typical ship market status, shipbuilding capacity supply and demand, shipbuilding costs of various countries, and environmental protection issues facing the world's shipbuilding industry. Han Guang, deputy chief engineer of the Economic Research Center of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, who was invited to attend the meeting, told reporters that although industry experts from various countries have put forward different views on some specific issues, they are generally optimistic about the prospects of the global shipbuilding market and believe that the future market Demand growth is the general trend.

With the development of the global economy in the future, the volume of international maritime trade will increase steadily. According to SAJ forecasts, this data will reach 11.65 billion tons by 2020 and 16.31 billion tons by 2035. Driven by this, the international shipbuilding market demand will begin to grow in 2020, and the growth rate from 2025 to 2035 is expected to return to the level of 2000 to 2010, and it is expected to reach 60 million revised gross tonnage by 2030 to 2035. Participants from SAU pointed out that from the current point of view, until 2020, the contradiction of overcapacity will continue to affect most shipbuilding companies. Due to insufficient market demand, most of the orders received by shipping companies during this period were low-priced ship orders. It is worth mentioning that many shipping companies are currently actively taking measures to cope with the market weakness, such as developing more energy-efficient and environmentally friendly ship types, entering the field of marine engineering equipment and offshore wind power. These practices should be continued, and at the same time, the analysis and forecast of the shipbuilding market should be strengthened to provide a reference for the development of the enterprise. "SAU representatives at the meeting said.

According to the forecast of Simpson Shipping Consulting (SSV) in the United Kingdom, starting from 2020, the global shipbuilding market demand will increase significantly. Experts from the European Shipping and Maritime Equipment Association (SEA) said that global economic integration has driven the growth of world maritime trade. While alleviating the contradiction of overcapacity demand in the shipping market, it has also brought some demand for new ships. At the same time, due to the sharp drop in new ship orders, the world's major shipbuilding countries have been reducing production capacity in recent years, which is conducive to the sustainable and healthy development of the shipbuilding industry. The latest statistics from Clarkson Research in the United Kingdom show that compared with 2012, China’s shipbuilding capacity is currently reduced by about 11%, Japan by about 14%, South Korea by about 3%, and European countries by about 17%.

According to statistics, in the past 17 years, the global average annual new ship orders were 37.6 million revised gross tonnage. According to Clarkson's forecast, from 2016 to 2023, the world's average annual new ship orders will be 47.9 million revised gross tonnage. By 2019, global shipbuilding capacity will be reduced to 51.7 million revised gross tonnage. Participants from the Korea Shipbuilding Association (KOSHIPA) believe that due to the continuous reduction of shipbuilding capacity in many countries and the expected growth in demand for new ships, the international shipbuilding market will begin to see a turnaround in 2016.

Although the overall demand in the international shipbuilding market is showing an increasing trend, the growth rate of each ship type will be different. Han Guang said that overall, the market demand for the three mainstream ship types of bulk carriers, oil tankers and container ships will grow at a slower rate in the future, but due to the large market size, they still occupy a dominant position in the international shipbuilding market. In terms of bulk carriers, according to SAl’s forecast, from 2012 to 2035, the global bulk cargo shipping volume will maintain a growth rate of 2.1%, and will reach 6 billion tons by 2035. The corresponding capacity demand is889 million dwt, compared with the current capacity will increase nearly 200 million dwt. In terms of oil tankers, by 2035, the global crude oil shipping volume will reach 3.75 billion tons, and the corresponding capacity demand will be 620 million DWT, which will increase the capacity demand by 120 million DWT compared to the current level. In terms of container ships, by 2035, the global container shipping volume will reach 550 million TEU, and the corresponding capacity demand will be 39.7 million TEU, which will increase the capacity demand of 23 million TEU compared with the current capacity.

"From this meeting, green environmental protection is currently the focus of the global shipbuilding industry. Representatives generally believe that it is necessary to minimize the pollution of ships to the marine environment and the atmosphere, and to meet the new rules and new regulations issued and implemented by the International Maritime Organization and related agencies. According to regulations, shipping companies need to devote themselves to the development of more environmentally friendly ship types.” Han Guang said that for Chinese shipping companies, this is both an opportunity and a challenge. Chinese shipbuilding companies should make more efforts to improve green shipbuilding technology and the level of intelligence of ships, and strive to enhance the competitiveness of enterprises, so as to occupy the commanding heights of the market and obtain more orders for new ships when the international ship market really picks up.